Residual Value Outlook 2017

Our analysts take an in-depth look into each of the Big 5 markets – France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK – to give you an independent opinion on car values for 2017. By sharing their insight and forecasts they aim to answer the following questions:

  • Will residual values grow or decline in 2017?
  • What is driving this trend?
  • Where are the opportunities for growth?
  • Which segments or fuel types are likely to grow?
  • What's the bigger picture?

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The insight behind customer choice

Our analysts take an in-depth look into each of the Big 5 markets – France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK – to give you an independent opinion and forecast for residual values across all key segments.  

 Each of the Big 5 European markets has experienced economic growth over the past two years which has boosted both new and used car sales. New car sales volumes have been buoyant across all markets, with the three largest markets – France, Germany and the UK – all emulating their pre-recession peaks. However, weak new car volumes at the start of the decade mean that there has been a shortage of used car supply until now.

Residual value performance over the next three years will be determined by how these recent rises in new car registrations and policies favour alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), particularly electric cars. The political tide is beginning to turn against diesel vehicles, with low emissions zones being implemented in multiple cities. The economic outlook for 2017 is less optimistic than in previous years and an increasingly unpredictable political environment characterised by the unexpected election of Donald Trump as US President and the UK’s decision to leave the EU has shaken consumer confidence in all markets except Germany.

 How will this impact the European car market?  Order Residual Value Outlook 2017 to benefit from the insight and forecasts of our analysts.

Executive summary         

Economic overview

  • Economic performance
  • Spending power
  • Business & consumer confidence
  • Key events

EU overview

  • Market overview
  • Residual value performance
  • Residual value outlook

 France

  • Market overview
  • Residual value performance
  • Residual value outlook
  • Hot topic: Diesel demonisation

Germany

  • Market overview
  • Residual value performance
  • Residual value outlook
  • Hot topic: Weakening export opportunities

Italy

  • Market overview
  • Residual value performance
  • Residual value outlook
  • Hot topic: End in sight for Italian new car growth?

Spain

  • Market overview
  • Residual value performance
  • Residual value outlook
  • Hot topic: Supply challenges for used car market

UK

  • Market overview
  • Residual value performance
  • Residual value outlook
  • Hot topic: Pre-registrations represent growing cause for concern

Figures 

  1. European Big 5 GDP growth, Q1 2010 - Q4 2017
  2. European Big 5 Harmonised core inflation rate, Q1 2010-Q4 2017
  3. European Big 5 – Current account balance as a percentage of GDP, Q1 2010 - Q4 2017
  4. European Big 5 – Unemployment rate, Q1 2010 - Q4 2017
  5. European Big 5 Growth in household disposable income, 2010-15
  6. European Big 5 – Business confidence index, Q1 2010 - Q4 2016
  7. European Big 5 – Consumer confidence index, Q1 2010 - Q4 2016
  8. EU – New car production, 2010-15
  9. EU – New car registrations, 2010-16
  10. European Big 5 – New car registrations as a share of the overall EU market, 2015
  11. European Big 5 – New car registrations as a share of the overall EU market, January – September 2016
  12. EU – Used car sales volumes, 2015
  13. EU - Size of car parc, 2010-15
  14. European Big 5 – Residual value percentage trends by segment, 2013-16
  15. France – New car registrations, 2010-16
  16. France – Car parc by age of vehicle, 2014
  17. France – Used car sales, 2010-16
  18. France –Retail fuel prices, January 2014 - October 2016
  19. France – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  20. France – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  21. France – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  22. France – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  23. France – Diesel share of new car sales, 2010-16
  24. Germany – New car registrations, 2010-16
  25. Germany - Car parc by age of vehicle, 2014
  26. Germany – Used car sales, 2010-16
  27. Germany –Retail fuel prices, January 2014 - October 2016
  28. Germany – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  29. Germany – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  30. Germany – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  31. Germany – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  32. Italy - New car registrations, 2010-16
  33. Italy - Car parc by age of vehicle, 2014
  34. Italy – Used car sales, 2010-16
  35. Italy –Retail fuel prices, January 2014 - October 2016
  36. Italy – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  37. Italy – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  38. Italy – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  39. Italy – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  40. Spain – New car registrations, 2010-16
  41. Spain – Car parc by age of vehicle, 2014
  42. Spain – Used car sales, 2010-16
  43. Spain –Retail fuel prices, January 2014 - October 2016
  44. Spain – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  45. Spain – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  46. Spain – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  47. Spain – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  48. UK – New car registrations, 2010-16
  49. UK – Car parc by age of vehicle, 2014
  50. UK – Used car sales, Q1 2014 - Q3 2016
  51. UK –Retail fuel prices, January 2014 - October 2016
  52. UK – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  53. UK – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  54. UK – Diesel residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  55. UK – Petrol residual value percentage trends by segment, Q1 2013 - Q3 2016
  56. UK – Year-on-year growth in new car registrations to consumers, November 2015 - October 2016

Tables

  1. Market outlook for European Big 5 in 2017
  2. Key political events, 2017
  3. Key regulatory events, 2017
  4. Major new vehicles launches events, Q1 2017
  5. Residual value growth (%), 2017-19
  6. Comparison of Italian car market v. European neighbours
  7. France – Trade residual value outlook by segment, 2017-19
  8. Germany – Trade residual value outlook by segment, 2017-19
  9. Italy – Trade residual value outlook by segment, 2017-19
  10. Spain – Trade residual value outlook by segment, 2017-19
  11. UK – Trade residual value outlook by segment, 2017-19 

The insight and intelligence in this report will help:  

 OEMs

  • Confidently qualify internal residual value forecasts.
  • Make informed specification and residual value management decisions.


 

 Fleet & Finance
  • Benchmark against internal forecasts and enable you to optimise pricing of leasing contracts.
  • Make effective business decisions on vehicles to infleet or defleet and identify opportunities to provide financing to new sectors.
  • Understand how risks are changing in the short- to medium-term, and make confident product development and pricing decisions to optimise return on investment.

 

 

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